By Andrew Brown, Partner, Apella Advisors
Reform is a reaction, not an aberration. The green economy must take note.
For years, we in the green economy have operated with the unspoken confidence of a movement on the right side of history. Net Zero targets, once controversial, became orthodoxy. ESG, once marginal, became mainstream. Capital flowed accordingly. Political risk felt like a legacy concern, not a live one.
And yet.
The rise of Reform UK and the quiet mimicry it has provoked, not just in the Conservative Party but across the political spectrum should serve as a jolt. This isn’t just about Nigel Farage. It’s about what his polling surge reveals: a mood, a shift, a slow-burning resentment toward institutions perceived to have run ahead of the public.
Reform’s influence is already visible in Labour’s repositioning on a range of issues — from migration to defence to fiscal rules. On energy and net zero, for now, the line is being held. But the warning lights are flashing. As climate ambition remains high and household patience runs thin, the green economy can no longer assume that political consensus will endure.
Recent research from my firm Apella into voter attitudes shows that this isn’t simply about culture wars or carbon scepticism. It’s structural. Many voters, particularly those beyond the metropolitan centres, no longer believe the transition to net zero will make their lives better. Cheaper. Fairer. More secure. What they see instead are rising energy bills, stalled infrastructure, and the relentless invocation of 2050 as a substitute for delivery in the here and now.
To them, the green transition doesn’t feel like a national mission. It feels like a corporate strategy dressed up as moral certainty.
This is dangerous territory. For those of us whose businesses, investments or reputations are built around climate alignment, the threat isn’t that net zero will be repealed. The threat is that it will be diluted, delayed, or quietly deprioritised — all under the respectable banners of ‘balance’ and ‘pragmatism’.
And here’s our inconvenient truth: we’ve been too slow to adjust. Many of our leaders continue to talk as if climate policy still enjoys the same broad political consensus it did five years ago. We assume the public will stay with us, if only the messaging improves, if only we can explain it better. We invoke “climate denial” when in reality what we’re encountering is something far more complex: democratic distance. A feeling that the transition is being done to people, not with them.
That needs to change.
The political centre is no longer where it was. The old framing, climate action as risk management, or green growth as economic inevitability, no longer cuts through on its own. It has to be lived. Proven. Localised. Tangible.
That means putting ourselves on the side of voters. It means talking about energy bills before emissions curves. About the way solar panels are slashing costs for households, and the batteries that are increasingly backing up local power. About reusing waste heat from data centres to warm entire neighbourhoods. About carbon capture not as a concession, but as a way to reinvigorate British industry — giving it a future, not just a past. About the thousands of green tech start-ups across the UK today, some of which will become the global giants of tomorrow. And about the skills, apprenticeships and decent jobs that will anchor this transition in real places, not just in policy papers. In short: net zero as delivery, not dogma.
None of this is about retreat. It’s about relevance. Reform is gaining ground not because the public is anti-climate, but because the public is pro-agency. They want to feel like participants in this transition — not passengers.
We need to make the job of Reform’s leaflet writers a harder one. Not by attacking them, but by denying them easy targets. By showing, clearly and persuasively, that decarbonisation can be a tool of national renewal, not just a compliance obligation. We should be making it easier, not harder, for Reform-inclined voters to support the green transition. That means demonstrating how it cuts bills, secures jobs, and restores British capability. It means speaking to their priorities, without condescension or spin. If we want a durable coalition for decarbonisation, we need to earn it not just expect it.
Less preaching. More proving. Less inevitability. More invitation.
Reform isn’t a sideshow. It’s a signal. Ignore it, and we risk turning one of Britain’s most vital national and international endeavours into just another partisan flashpoint.